TED学院 | 中国正在改变购物的未来
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简介：中国是创新的巨大实验室，来自波士顿咨询公司的中国零售专家王佳茜（Angela Wang）如是说，在这个实验室中，每件事都在人们的手机上发生。5亿中国消费者——相当于美国，英联邦和德国人口的总和——在手机平台上频繁的日常消费，即便在传统的实体店也是这样。这种转型对购物的未来意味着什么？一起来了解这种新的日常行为习惯——每件事物都超乎寻常的便捷，灵活，而社交更是易如反掌。
📃 中英对照翻译稿
This is my nephew, Yuan Yuan. He’s five years old, super adorable. I asked him the other day, What would you like for your birthday this year? He said, "I want to have a one-way mirror Spider-Man mask."
这是我的侄子。圆圆。五岁的他非常可爱。有一天我问他：「今年想要什么生日礼物？」他说：「我想要个眼罩是单面镜的蜘蛛侠面具。 」
I had absolutely no idea what he was talking about, so I said, "Wow, that’s really cool, but how are you going to get it?" He told me, without a blink of his eyes, I’m going to tell my mom and make a wish before I go to bed.
我根本不知道他说的是什么，所以问他：「哇，听起来很酷，要怎么才能得到呢？ 」他不假思索地回答：「我会告诉妈妈，并且在睡前许个愿。
My mom will go to shake her mobile phone. The next morning, the delivery uncle will give it to me when I wake up." I was about to tease him, but suddenly I realizedhe was simply telling me the truth.
妈妈会把手机摇一摇。第二天早上我起床时，送货的叔叔就送到了。」我本想逗他一下，但突然意识到他只是告诉我实话。
The truth of what shopping looks like for this generation. If you think of it, for a child like Yuan Yuan, shopping is a very different idea compared to what my generation had in mind. Shopping is always done on mobile, and payment is all virtual.
他这一代人的购物方式就是这样的。仔细想想，对圆圆这样的孩子来说，购物的概念与我们这代人印像中的大不相同。他们总是用手机购物，以虚拟付款。
A huge shopping revolution is happening in China right now. Shopping behaviors, and also technology platforms, have evolved differently than elsewhere in the world. For instance, e-commerce in China is soaring. It’s been growing at twice the speed of the United Statesand a lot of the growth is coming from mobile. Every month, 500 million consumers are buying on mobile phones, and to put that into context, that is a total population of the United States, UK and Germany combined.
此时中国正进行着购物的革命巨变；购物行为和技术平台的演变，已迥异于世界其他各地。例如，空前的中国电商荣景，以美国的两倍速度成长，而其中相当大的部分来自行动设备。每个月有五亿个消费者用手机购物；具体来说，相当于美国、英国和德国的人口总和。
But it is not just about the scale of the e-commerce, it is the speed of adoption and the aggregation of the ecosystems. It took China less than five years to become a country of mobile commerce, and that is largely because of the two technology platforms, Alibaba and Tencent. They own 90 percent of the e-commerce --pretty much the whole market --85 percent of social media, 85 percent of internet payment.
不仅牵涉到电商的规模，采用的速度和生态系统聚集的程度也是。不到五年，中国已成为行动商务的巨头，这主要归功于两大技术平台：阿里巴巴和腾讯。二者掌握著 90% 的电商业务，几乎是整个市场，还掌握 85% 的社群媒体，和 85% 的网路支付。
And they also own large volumes of digital content, video, online movie, literature, travel information, gaming.When this huge base of mobile shoppers meets with aggregated ecosystems,chemical reactions happen. Today, China is like a huge laboratory generating all sorts of experiments. You should come to China, because here you will get a glimpse into the future.
他们也拥有大量的数位内容：影片、线上电影、文学、旅游资讯、游戏。当庞大的行动购物消费者遇上了聚集的生态系统，就会产生化学反应。当今的中国像是个巨大的实验室，正做着各式各样的实验。你们应该来中国看看，因为你们能在这里窥得一角未来。
One of the trends I have seen concerns the spontaneity of shopping. Five years ago, in a fashion study, we found that on average, a Chinese consumer would be buying five to eight pairs of shoes. This number tripled to reach about 25 pairs of shoes a year. Who would need so many pairs of shoes? So I asked them, "What are the reasons you buy?"They told me a list of inspirations: blogs, celebrity news, fashion information.
我观察到自发性的购物趋势。五年前在研究流行趋势时，我们发现中国消费者平均买五到八双鞋子。如今这数字已经成长三倍，成为每年约买 25 双。谁会需要这么多鞋子呢？所以我询问他们：「为什么购买？」他们告诉我刺激他们消费的清单：部落格、名人的新闻、时尚的消息。
But really, for many of them, there was no particular reason to buy. They were just browsing on their mobile site and then buying whatever they saw. We have observed the same level of spontaneity in everything, from grocery shopping to buying insurance products.
而事实上，许多人并没有具体的购物理由，通常他们只在行动设备上浏览网页，看到什么就买什么。我们见到几乎在每件事上都有同等程度的自发性，从购买日用品到买保险。
But it is not very difficult to understand if you think about it. A lot of the Chinese consumers are still very newin their middle-class or upper-middle-class lifestyles, with a strong desire to buy everything new, new products, new services.
仔细想想，不难理解这种行为。很多的中国消费者才刚开始接触中产或中上层社会的生活方式，他们有强烈的欲望想要买每一样新东西、新产品、新服务。
And with this integrated ecosystem, it is so easy for them to buy, one click after another. However, this new shopping behavior is creating a lot of challengesfor those once-dominant businesses. The owner of a fashion company told me that he’s so frustrated because his customers keep complaining that his products are not new enough. Well, for a fashion company,really bad comment.
有了整合的生态系统，买东西轻而易举，一个接着一个的点选。然而，这种新的消费行为产生了很多的新挑战给那些曾经称霸过的业者面对。一个时装公司的东主对我诉说他的挫折，因为顾客一直抱怨他的产品不够新，对时装公司而言是很糟糕的评价。
And he already increased the number of products in each collection. It doesn’t seem to work. So I told him there’s something more important than that. You’ve got to give your consumer exactly what they want when they still want it.
他已经增加每个系列的新品数量，但好像没什么效果。我告诉他更重要的是必须满足顾客的确切需求，而且要及时地满足。
And he can learn something from the online apparel players in China. These companies, they collect real consumer feedback from mobile sites, from social media,and then their designers will translate this information into product ideas, and then send them to micro studios for production. These micro studios are really key in this overall ecosystem, because they take small orders, 30 garments at a time, and they can also make partially customized pieces.
他可以向中国的网路服装供应商学习。这些公司收集真正的顾客反馈，从行动装置和社群媒体上收集，然后他们设计的团队把这些资讯转化成产品的构想，再送去小型工作室生产。这些小型工作室是整个生态系统的关键，因为他们接受小量订单，一次 30 件，还能小部分客制化。
The fact that all these production designs are done locally, the whole process, from transporting to product on shelf or online sometimes takes only three to four days. That is super fast, and that is highly responsive to what is in and hot on the market. And that is giving enormous headaches to traditional retailers
由于一系列的生产和设计都在当地完成，整个从运输到上架或上网的过程有时短到只需三到四天，堪称神速，是对市场流行和热卖的高效率反应，致使每年只推出几个限量款的传统零售商极为头痛。
Then there’s a consumer’s need for ultra convenience. A couple of months ago, I was shopping with a friend in Tokyo. We were in the store, and there were three to four people standing in front of usat the checkout counter. Pretty normal, right?But both of us dropped our selection and walked away. This is how impatient we have become.
此外还有消费者对超便利的需求。几个月前，我和朋友在东京逛街。我们在一家店里，前面排了三四个人等著收银机结账。很正常，对吧？但是我们两人都放下了挑好的东西，离开了商店。我们变得如此没有耐心。
Delivering ultra convenience is not just something nice to have. It is crucial to make sure your consumer actually buys. And in China, we have learnedthat convenience is really the glue that will make online shopping a behavior and a habit that sticks. It is sometimes more effective than a loyalty program alone.
有超便捷的递送不仅仅好，还是顾客购买与否的真正关键。我们在中国发现，便捷才会真正使人们上网购物的行为和习惯持久，有时甚至胜过只靠以客为尊的方案。
Take Hema. It’s a retail grocery concept developed by Alibaba. They deliver a full basket of products from 4,000 SKUs to your doorstep within 30 minutes. What is amazing is that they deliver literally everything: fruits, vegetables, of course. They also deliver live fishand also live Alaska king crab.Like my friend once told me, It’s really my dream coming true. Finally, I can impress my mother-in-law
举「盒马」为例，这是一个阿里巴巴推广的零售概念他们把满满一篮货品从四千个最小存货单位送到你家门口不超过三十分钟。不可思议的是几乎每样东西都递送：当然包括水果、蔬菜，还递送活鱼和活生生的阿拉斯加帝王蟹。如同朋友有次对我说的：「简直是梦想成真。 我终于可以在婆婆不打招呼就过来吃晚饭时使她服气了。 」
Well, companies like Amazon and Fresh Direct are also experimenting in the same field. The fact that Hema is part of the Alibaba ecosystem makes it faster and also a bit easier to implement. For an online grocery player, it is very difficult, very costly, to deliver a full basket quickly, but for Hema, it’s got a mobile app, it’s got mobile payment, and also it’s built 20 physical stores in high-density areas in Shanghai.
亚马逊和新鲜直达这些公司也在同一领域实验著。盒马因为隶属于阿里巴巴生态系统，得以更快、更容易施行。对网路零售商家而言，快递一整篮货品不容易做且成本很高，但是盒马有自己的应用程式、自己的行动支付，还在上海闹区开设了二十家实体店。
These stores are built to ensure the freshness of the product --they actually have fish tanks in the store --and also to give locations that will enable high-speed delivery. I know the question you have on your mind. Are they making money? Yes, they are making money.
开设这些店面以确保产品新鲜度──他们店里真的有水族箱──同时也得以快速发货、送货。我知道你们心里疑惑著：他们获利了吗？是的，他们有盈余。
They are breaking even, and what is also amazing is that the sales revenue per storeis three to four times higher than the traditional grocery store, and half of the revenue orders are coming from mobile. This is really proof that a consumer, if you give them ultra convenience that really works in grocery shopping, they’re going to switch their shopping behaviors online,
他们的收支平衡。更不可思议的是每个店面的销售额都高于传统的零售店面三到四倍，而营收的一半来自行动端的订单。这证明了对消费者而言，如果提供他们真正要用的超便捷零售购物体验，他们立刻就会转为上网购物。
So ultra convenience and spontaneity, that’s not the full story. The other trend I have seen in Chinais social shopping. If you think of social shopping elsewhere in the world, it is a linear process. You pick up something on Facebook, watch it, and you switch to Amazonor brand. com to complete the shopping journey. Clean and simple.
而超便捷和自发性还不是故事的全部。我在中国见到的另一趋势是社群购物。在世界上其他地方的社群购物通常是个线性的过程。你在脸书上留意到一样东西，看了一会儿，然后登入亚马逊或品牌网去买，轻而易举。
But in China it is a very different thing. On average, a consumer would spend one hour on their mobile phone shopping. That’s three times higher than the United States. Where does the stickiness come from? What are they actually doing on this tiny little screen? So let me take you on a mobile shopping journey that I usually would be experiencing.
但在中国截然不同。消费者平均花一小时用手机购物，是美国的三倍。黏着度从哪里来的呢？他们在小小的手机萤幕上到底做些什么？让我带你们来一趟行动上网的购物旅程，是我平常的体验。
11pm, yes, that’s usually when I shop. I was having a chat in a WeChat chatroom with my friends. One of them took out a pack of snack and posted the product link in that chatroom. I hate it, because usually I would just click that link and then land on the product page. Lots of information, very colorful, mind-blowing.
晚上 11 点，没错，我通常在这个时间购物。我本来在微信聊天室跟朋友聊天。有人拿出一包零食，还在聊天室里张贴产品的连结网站。我讨厌那行为，因为通常那会使我本能地点选那连结而登入网站。网页的内容很丰富，色彩绚丽，让人眼前一亮。
Watched it and then a shop assistant came online and asked me, "How can I help you tonight?"Of course I bought that pack of snack. What is more beautiful is I know that the next day, around noontime, that pack of snack will be delivered to my office. I can eat it and share it with my colleaguesand the cost of delivery, maximum one dollar.
看了一会儿，一个购物助理上线，问我：「今晚有什么我帮得上忙？」当然我买了那包零食。更妙的是我很清楚在第二天的中午时分，那包零食就会被送到我的办公室，供我食用以及和同事们分享，而快递的费用不超过一美元。
Just when I was about to leave that shopping site, another screen popped up. This time it is the livestreaming of a grassroots celebrity teaching me how to wear a new color of lipstick. I watched for 30 seconds -- very easy to understand --and also there is a shopping link right next to it, clicked it, bought it in a few seconds.
正当我要离开那网页时，又跳出一个视窗，内容是一个草根网红的直播，教我如何用新款色彩的唇膏打扮自己。我看了 30 秒，简单易懂，旁边还有一个购买的连结，点一下，几秒钟就买好了。
Back to the chatroom. The gossiping is still going on. Another friend of mine posted the QR codeof another pack of snack. Clicked it, bought it. So the whole experienceis like you’re exploring in an amusement park. It is chaotic, it is funand it’s even a little bit addictive.
回到了聊天室，大家还在闲聊著。另一个朋友张贴了二维码，是另一种零食的，又点选买了。整个购物体验就像是在逛游乐园，混乱而有趣，甚至还使人上瘾。
This is what’s happening when you have this integrated ecosystem. Shopping is embedded in social, and social is evolving into a multidimensional experience. The integration of ecosystems reaches a whole new level. So does its dominance in all aspects of our life.
有了整合的生态系统就会这样，购物被包藏在社交行为里，而社交进化为多方的体验。整合的生态系统达到全新的层次，以致支配了我们全方位的生活。
And of course, there are huge commercial opportunities behind it.A Chinese snack company, Three Squirrels, built a half-a-billion-dollar business in just three years by investing in 300 to 500 shop assistants who are going to be online to provide services 24/7. In the social media environment, they are like your neighborhood friends.Even when you are not buying stuff, they will be happy to just tell you a few jokes and make you happy.In this integrated ecosystem, social media can really redefine the relationship between brand, retailer and consumer.
当然背后有庞大的商机。「三只松鼠」这家中国零嘴公司在三年内建起五亿美元的商业规模，靠的是投资三到五百名购物助理，全年全天 24 小时无休地提供线上服务。在社群媒体里，他们就像是你的邻居。即时你不购物，他们也会愉快地讲些笑话让你开心。在这个整合的生态系统里，社群媒体真的能重新定义品牌、零售商以及消费者之间的关系。
These are only fragments of the massive changes I have seen in China. In this huge laboratory, a lot of experiments are generated every single day. The ecosystems are reforming, supply chain distribution, marketing, product innovation, everything. Consumers are getting the power to decide what they want to buy, when they want to buy it, how they want to buy it, how they want to social. It is now back to business leaders of the worldto really open their eyes, see what’s happening in China, think about it and take actions.
这些只是我在中国见到大型巨变中的一小部分。在这个巨大的实验室里，每天都进行着许多的实验。生态系统正重建供应链、行销、产品创新的每一面向。消费者取回购物的决定权，要买什么、在什么时候买、如何买、如何社交。现在球回到全球商业领袖的手上，他们应该真正张开眼看清楚中国发生了什么。
Thank you.(Applause)
谢谢。（掌声）
Massimo Portincaso: Angela, what you shared with us is truly impressive and almost incredible, but I think many in the audience had the same question that I had, which is: Is this kind of impulsive consumption both economically and environmentally sustainable over the longer term?And what is the total price to be paid for such an auto mized and ultra convenient retail experience?
马西莫 坡特卡索：安琪，妳的分享真令人印象深刻，几乎难以置信。但我想许多听众和我有同样的问题，那就是：这种强迫式的消费，能在经济和在环境上永续吗？总体而言得要付出多少代价来支撑这样自动化。
Angela Wang: Yeah. One thing we have to keep in mind is really, we are at the very beginning of a huge transformation. So with this trading up needs of the consumer, together with the evolution of the ecosystem, there are a lot of opportunities and also challenges. So I’ve seen some early signs that the ecosystems are shifting their focus to pay attention to solve these challenges.
王安琪：是的。我们应该牢记我们正站在巨变之初这件事。有这样的消费交易需求，连同生态系统的进化，就会面临许多的机会和挑战。我已看到早期的征兆，生态系统已转而关注要解决所面对的挑战。
For example, paying more consideration to sustainability alongside just about speed, and also quality over quantity. But there are really no simple answers to these questions. That is exactly why I’m here to tell everyone that we need to watch it, study it, and play a part in this evolution.
例如：更关注永续，不只看重速度、数量，还重「质」多于重「量」。但这些问题没有简单的答案。我今天告诉各位的正是：我們得注意、研究， 並在这样的社会进程中扮演属于自己的那个角色。
MP: Thank you very much.
（马西莫）非常谢谢妳。
AW: Thank you.(Applause)
（安琪）谢谢你。（掌声）
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